Gye Greene's Thoughts

Gye Greene's Thoughts (w/ apologies to The Smithereens and their similarly-titled album!)

Tuesday, April 07, 2020

C-19 prediction on airfares and border closures

I predict that, once the bulk of the C-19 situation is over, that most countries will still keep their borders pretty locked up -- for about a year.  So, perhaps highly limited international travel until July 2021?  April 2021 at best.

This means that recreational travel (i.e. "vacations") will have to be within your own country -- esp. for larger countries such as the U.S. and Australia.

I also predict that airlines will neither discount nor increase the prices of airfares:  there will be pent-up demand for travel -- so the airlines won't need to reduce their ticket prices.  But, at the same time, people won't be so desperate to travel that the market forces would support price-gouging by the airlines.

Thus:  ticket prices will be essentially what they were, pre-C-19.


--GG

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1 Comments:

At April 07, 2020 10:19 PM, Blogger Gye Greene said...

I'm leaving a comment to myself to time-stamp my prediction: you can potentially retrospectively change the "posting date" of blog entries -- but I'm pretty sure the comments time-date stamp is locked down. ;)

-National borders closed until probably July 2021 (April/May 2021 at best).

-Vacationing will therefore be domestic travel, not international.

-Airfares will be the same as pre-C-19 -- neither discounted nor inflated.


--GG

 

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