C-19 and social predictions

So -- this is my first day of working from home... until I'm told otherwise.  Strange times.


Here are three predictions I have for the aftermath of the current coronavirus (or, as I'm calling it, "C-19"), which I came up with on 25 March 2020:

1) Improvements in video conferencing:  There's probably a lot of people like me who never got around to trying out video chats -- and especially not "group" video chats (video conferencing).  But this last Wednesday my church council had a test run of a video conference, in preparation for a "re-shaped" church council meeting on the weekend (i.e. "no longer face-to-face").  And teams that work from home are going to use it more than ever before.

Once people discover video conferencing, they'll use it a lot -- because (despite the extra bandwidth it uses), it is more "personal" to be able to see facial expressions and body language when talking.

This increased uptake, and frequency of use, means that people will "shop around" for the most efficient, easiest to use video conferencing software -- whereas before they probably just used whatever everyone else in their company used.  This means that there will be increased competition in that sector (remember the "browser wars" in the mid-'90s?) -- and we'll get a lot of extra features, better interfaces, and generally better video chat products. 

I can't say whether the "base packages" will be free, and the "premium" versions will cost money -- or whether the "free" versions will be funded by advertising.

Unless one is just amazingly better than the alternatives (much like Google is still the strongest search engine), I don't see there being a quasi-monopoly.  Especially since -- unlike computer operating systems (or type of video tape cartridge) there aren't strong "costs" to switching back and forth (except perhaps the nuisance of exporting your "favorites" list of contacts).


2) Working from home will become normative:  By the time this C-19 thing blows over, a substantial portion of the entire industrialized world will have spent (I estimate) two months working from home.  The technical kinks will have been addressed; bandwidth will have improved.

Everyone will have established their "working from home" routines -- for individuals as well as workgroups.  This means that if people want to work from home -- to save commuting time; to minimize pollution (from travelling); or just from personal preference -- it will be more acceptable.

I have anecdotal evidence of workgroups that have wanted to have the flexibility to work from home, but were denied permission:  but now, they can.

Kind of like "Rosie the Riveter", where after women were so broadly integrated into the workforce during World War II, it was hard to force them "back into the home" again.  Except that this is the opposite:  it'll be hard to keep people from the home (as they work).


3) Smaller workspaces; more hotdesking:  I do think that there is something benficial about having co-workers physically located around you:  social interaction, spontaneous conversations -- and nipping down the hall to ask a question is often still the right level of interaction:  e-mails are too cumbersome if there's a lot of follow-up questions (e.g. for clarification), phoning takes a little too long -- and you can't gauge how open to interrupting someone is (even with their electronic "busy status" flags).

It's also good for creating social integration -- especially with new hires:  my team has worked together for at least a year, so we all have a sense of each other, and of the group -- so we can not be "in person" for a month or two and still feel like we "know" each other.  Whereas integrating a new person to the group would be difficult, if there are only e-mails, phone calls, and the occasional group chat to bring him or her into the group.

Maybe when we have better holographic imaging technology -- so we can do the "Kingsmen" (the first movie) style of "virtual colleagues".  But until then, it is good to have at least some face-to-face time.

My prediction is that workplaces will grow physically smaller -- at least in terms of the number of desks (and computers) that are required.  If your workplace currently has 100 people, five years from now I predict you'll only have 60 workstations set up.

Some people -- like me! -- are "nesters", and like having personal items, photos of the family, and etc. on their desk.  But others have fairly spartan desks, and would probably be happy to only come in for meetings (as needed:  once a week, if you can schedule things efficiently).

I foresee two variations:  one is that two teams share the same "pod" (group of cubicles) -- maybe with one person piling their things on the left, and the other on the right.   They then alternate working from home, and coming in to the office.  The converging on the office would largely be for for developing and maintaining social cohesion.

The other is that each team is allocated space:  I'm estimating that about one-third of a team would want to work at the office all the time; one third would share a desk with another team member and just trade off (based on a schedule arranged between the two); and one third (pragmatically, more one one-quarter) would work from home unless they had a specific reason to come in -- at which case they'd sit at a super-small desk with their laptop.  This means that only about half the number of proper "workstations" (computers, proper desks) would be required -- a long as there were enough small, "blank desks" available for the "drop-in" people to set up for the day.


I predict that there will be enough inertia, post-C-19, that a lot of people who had worked from home over the last two months will just... keep doing that. 

The process of the reduction in workstations back at the office wouldn't be felt for two to three years:  it would largely come up whenever space gets reassigned (e.g. your team or directorate moves to another floor) -- and the new set-up has fewer desks than the old set-up.


--GG